Local Weather-Based Digital Advisory and Its Impact on Kenyan Farming

About the studies

The Busara Center for Behavioral Economics and 60 Decibels worked together to develop a lean, replicable, yet robust methodology for evaluating the impact of digital farmer services (DFS.) We piloted our lean evaluation approach with TomorrowNow.org’s hyper-local SMS advisory for maize farmers in Kenya.

About TomorrowNow.org

TomorrowNow.org is a climate-tech nonprofit dedicated to empowering communities on the frontlines of climate change with next-gen technology and strategic partnerships. Their founding technology company, Tomorrow.io, provides hyperlocal weather information through its API, intelligence platform and satellites. Together, they collaborate with public entities such as national meteorological agencies and national agricultural research systems to support and sustain next-generation agro-weather services, fostering proactive climate adaptation and resilience.

In Kenya, TomorrowNow.org partners with the Kenya Agriculture and Livestock Research Organisation (KALRO) to deliver climate-smart agriculture information and timely advisory services to farmers via free SMS. Farmers can receive one of two types of messages:

•Version 1 (V1): KALRO’s value-chain specific general farming advisory (Comparison)

•Version 2 (V2): KALRO’s value-chain specific general farming advisory enhanced with TomorrowNow.org’s hyper-local weather advisory (Treatment)

Post-Planting Key Insights

Farmers receiving TomorrowNow’s enhanced advisory from KALRO are more likely to report successful germination and less likely to report any crop infestation or damage to their maize

Treatment farmers were more likely to achieve successful germination of all their seeds and to report ‘no crop damage’ due to weather when compared to comparison farmers. Additionally, treatment farmers were less likely to report that their maize crops were infested with pests during the season. 

Farmers who receive messages enhanced with TomorrowNow’s weather data are more likely to say that their agricultural season was ‘much better’ because of the SMS advisory

72% of treatment farmers say the season was ‘much better’ because of the SMS advisory, compared to 52% of comparison farmers. More treatment farmers rated TomorrowNow-enhanced messages favourably on timeliness, trustworthiness, and relevance of the advisory. 

Farmers in the two groups are equally likely to use NPK fertilizer and certified seeds

We found no significant relationship between receiving TomorrowNow’s enhanced advisory and the use of certified seeds or NPK fertilizer during the growing period. Many farmers reported challenges in accessing inputs, which may explain the lack of effect. However, treatment farmers did demonstrate greater knowledge of soil cover techniques than those in the comparison group.

Both treatment and comparison farmers are reporting similar levels of satisfaction with the SMS advisory. However, comparison farmers are slightly more likely to report encountering challenges related to the advisory itself

Treatment farmers’ satisfaction is only slightly higher than comparison farmers (Net Promoter Score of 44 vs. 42). Both groups find the advisory engaging, empowering and say that it helps to facilitate informed decision-making. Treatment farmers encounter fewer challenges (9%) compared to comparison farmers (12%), with understanding the advisory being the main challenge.

Post-Harvest Key Insights

Only a third of farmers interviewed report receiving SMS advisory messages from KALRO

This is a decrease from the post-planting survey, when nearly two thirds reported receiving the messages. Among those who report receiving SMS advisory, farmers in both the treatment and comparison groups report receiving and reading messages with similar frequency. 

Farmers receiving TomorrowNow enhanced messages are not more likely to adopt recommended practices than those receiving standard KALRO messages

Use of fertilizer and soil coverage was similar across both groups, with 3 in 10 farmers using plant material as soil cover. Farmers receiving KALRO messages are more likely to weed more than once and bury or burn their infected maize than those in the receiving TomorrowNow messages. 

Satisfaction with both types of advisory service is fair, and lower at post-harvest time than after planting

The overall Net Promoter Score is 10, which is lower than in the post-planting survey (44). In both groups, farmers mention irrelevant or disorganized content and the need for more practical assistance, which mirror the complaints mentioned in the post-planting survey, although fewer farmers at post-harvest said ‘most’ or ‘all’ the content was relevant and accurate. 

Farm outcomes at harvest are slightly better for farmers receiving the TomorrowNow enhanced advisory

Farmers in the treatment group are less likely to report that more than half their maize crop was spoiled or damaged, and more likely to say the quality of their maize crop was ‘much better’ than an average year. However, there was no significant difference in reported maize yield or in farmers’ reported change in total production between the two groups. 

Laying the Groundwork for Continued Learning

These studies offered useful early learnings on the role of hyper-local digital advisories in supporting farmers. We’re continuing our collaboration with TomorrowNow.org this year to deepen our understanding through additional research.